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Long-term rates are rising today, the all-important 10-year Treasury suddenly above the 3.16-3.28 percent range that gave us sub-5 percent mortgages for the first time since spring. Gone now, pushing 5.125 percent, the 10-year trading 3.37 percent at this moment.
Ordinarily, a range breakout like this would signal a run to the top of the old range, 10-year Treasurys testing 4 percent as in summer, mortgages at 5.75 percent. However, nothing in this moment is ordinary -- not remotely predictable with normal tools.
Believers in "V"-shaped recovery gave it up this week, as did many hoping for any near-term recovery at all. The 10-year T-note broke cleanly through its post-May 3.28 percent low, taking mortgages below 5 percent, also for the first time since spring.
The manner in which the bond market cascaded said more than the fact. There was no new, single-piece, trend-changing report, just the cumulative weight of news describing an end to the May-July bright interval, and the beginning of an economic flattening or outright stall sometime in August.
CNNMoney.com writer, Les Christie, criticizes the U.S. government's plan to help homeowners from foreclosure.