Santa Barbara, CA, May 11, 2016
RealtyStore (www.realtystore.com), a national provider of real estate listings and property data, analyzed trends in distressed property listings and home sale prices in the top 5 metro areas that rely on oil industry employment. Analysis covered the time period when oil prices hit lows in early 2015 to present. Findings showed mixed, but generally negative impact on these markets. The Tulsa OK, Oklahoma City and Houston TX housing markets are now suffering the most since oil prices saw their most dramatic decline through 2015.
RealtyStore compiled and analyzed home loan defaults and home pricing data for the five U.S. markets that represent the largest percent of employment in the oil industry. These markets are respectively Bakersfield, CA, Houston, TX, Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, and Fort Worth, TX.
Based on foreclosure filing records, the three counties which include Tulsa, Oklahoma City and Houston show substantially higher levels of foreclosure activity than those for Bakersfield and Fort Worth. The three worst performing counties contain a larger proportion of both their state’s completed foreclosures (REO’s) and a significantly larger proportion of distressed, or pre-foreclosure, properties now in default. Each area’s share of their state’s defaults is represented in the accompanying REO and Pre-Foreclosure chart.
The Tulsa, Oklahoma City and Houston housing markets are now suffering most since oil prices saw a dramatic decline through 2015.
These findings suggest the Houston (Harris county), Oklahoma City (Oklahoma county) and Tulsa (Tulsa County) housing markets are seeing a larger negative impact due to falling oil prices than the Bakersfield (Kern county) and Fort Worth (Tarrant county) housing markets.
While additional external factors may contribute to the marked increase in home loan defaults, the Harris County, Oklahoma County and Tulsa County housing markets are experiencing dramatic weakness relative to the rest of their states, as their new defaults are trending well higher than their existing share of their state’s completed REOs. As a result, in coming months, we expect to see an increasing trend in the number of REOs in these markets.
Negative trends were also observed for the median sales price for existing single-family homes. On a national level, the median sales price across the U.S. peaked in Q2, 2015, but has since declined. Between Q2, 2015 and Q1, 2016, the median sales price in the U.S. fell from $229,400 to $217,600, a loss of -5.1%.
This same trend is seen on a greater scale in three of the five oil dependent markets. Tulsa, Oklahoma City and Houston suffered the steepest drops in prices, sliding -9.9%, - 9.8% and -5.9% off their respective peak prices. Bakersfield was only slightly better than the national trend, with prices dropping -4.9%. Fort Worth performed best in the group and better than the national average, but still saw prices shrink by -2.4% compared to their peak in early 2015. Prices are based on latest data available (through Q1, 2016). These price drops are illustrated in the following Pricing chart.
RealtyStore (www.realtystore.com), a division of Nations Info Corp, maintains the largest variety of real estate listings and discount property data nationwide. RealtyStore's mission is to empower its customers with the tools, education and analysis required to identify and potentially maximize opportunity with undervalued real estate. Collected from hundreds of public and private sources, RealtyStore's proprietary database includes over 2.5 million listings including traditional re-sale, pre foreclosures, foreclosures, auctions, short sales, lease options, and owner financed listings.
REO properties referenced herein have completed the foreclosure process with a recording date on or before the date noted above. REOs have been repossessed by a bank, lending institution or government sponsored loan guarantor such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD or the VA. Pre-foreclosure properties are those which recorded a payment default. Pre-foreclosure status and REO title holders, inventory counts and prices are subject to change at any time. Pre-foreclosure and REO data is accessed through RealtyStore’s proprietary database which is derived through hundreds of public and private data providers. Local housing data is determined from third party and public records.